And Bob Farrer is looking to go Independent

According to the Black Cat Radio, Bob Farrer (County Councillor, District Councillor and Town Councillor) is considering going independent. The article says:

Eaton Socon Councillor Bob Farrer has told Black Cat Radio that he's considering standing as an Independent in the upcoming local elections. A number of disagreements in current council policies are thought to be behind the move.

How likely is this to happen? Bob has form on "considering going Independent". But he remains a Conservative. If Bob does stand as an Independent he will not be able belong to a Conservative Group either at County or Town. He would therefore lose his Chairmanship of the (useless) Town Council Planning Committee.

What are Bobs chances if he goes Independent? Lets take a look at the electoral history for Eaton Ford.

2011 District Elections

2008 District Elections

2007 District Elections

The Conservatives have gotten over 1100 votes and scored 1549 votes in 2011. The 2011 vote may have something to do with the AV referendum on the same day. Looking at the Town Council elections, on the same day in 2011, Farrer and Harty

This gives a personal vote of roughly 270. Even if Bob Farrer goes Independent he will need to take a far higher vote than 270. Like all candidates Bob needed to start his campaign many months ago. Currently Bob is a Conservative. Even though Bob has a number of policy disputes with the Conservatives if he wants to become an Independent and carry on being a councillor Bob needs to put in a load of work.

If Bob goes Independent he will need to bring with him a large number of Conservative voters with him. I don't feel he will and therefore will lose if he stands as an Independent at this late stage.

If I were the Conservatives I would be very annoyed at Bob Farrer if he announces he was going Independent just before the elections.