The next District Election won by the Conservatives

Even before the polls are being thought about the Conservatives have won the next District Elections. Whilst the overall result is in no doubt, the individual ward elections are still to be fought and won.

These are the wards up in the electoral cycle:

St Ives East - Conservative - Jason Abelwhite (Council Leader)
Brampton - Liberal Democrat
Godmanchester  - Conservative
Huntingdon East - Liberal Democrats
Huntingdon North  - Conservative
Ramsey -  Conservative
Sawtry  - Independent
Somersham - Conservative
St Ives West - Conservative
St Neots Eaton Ford - Conservative
St Neots Eaton Socon - Conservative
St Neots Eynesbury - Conservative
The Hemingfords - Conservative
Warboys and Bury - Liberal Democrats
Yaxley - Conservative

There are 52 Councillors sitting on HDC. 27 for a majority. The current political make up is:
41 Conservatives
8 Liberal Democrats
2 UKIP
1 Independent

There are 15 seats up for election.
11 Conservatives
3 Liberal Democrats
1 Independent

The Conservative spread is 45 seats - 30 seats
The Liberal Democrats is  12 - 5 seats
UKIP is 3 - 2 seats
Independent 1 - 0 seats.

Even if the Conservatives drop all their seats up for election they will still retain 30 seats. A majority of 8.

The battlegrounds

The Liberal Democrats need to demonstrate they are still a political force in St Neots. There has been hardly any activity by them so far. Potentially they have St Neots Eynesbury and St Neots Eaton Socon to try and win. Eynesbury has the only Liberal Democrat Councillor for a St Neots ward. They also need to fight back in Eaton Socon

The Conservatives need to thump home their wins of 2011 in Eynesbury and Eaton Socon by scoring good wins against the background of the NO2AV campaign not being behind them.

On the wider District, the Liberal Democrats need to defend the seats they already have and push ahead. Huntingdon East is a Liberal Democrat/Conservative battle. Huntingdon North is also a three way battle between Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Labour. This is the only seat Labour could take.

Ramsey could see the last of 3 Conservative seats fall to UKIP which is making this their centre of power.

Whether the Independent Councillor in Sawtry will continue is open to question. If he doesn't re-stand this should be another Conservative win.

Is Labour over egging their chances?

In a piece on the local elections in the News and Crier, Labour spokesman Mike Sneath says he is confident Labour will get 4 to 5 seats. Where these seats are he doesn't indicate. With Labour trailing a very poor third in all locations there isn't many places where Labour could come from third to first. Yaxley and Farcet ward is one such place.

I suppose this is premised on the weird assumption that all Liberal Democrat supporters will now vote Labour. But that won't be so. Or is this a statement in the hope that Labour supporters will go out and vote if there is a notion of a chance of winning.

Labour needs to campaign. They have put up a full slate of candidates in the 3 Huntingdon wards up for election and for the Town Council. In St Neots, Labour is is only fighting in 3 of the 4 wards up for election and no one for the Town Council elections. Hardly going to win here.

So Labour are targeting Huntingdon. It could be they have done the ground work, but that is unlikely.

Labour got us into this mess. Labours love affair with the city is well documented.

I suppose we have to wait for the count on 6th May 2011 to find out whether Labours prediction will come true. Is Labour over egging their chances? The answer has to be yes they are!

Questions to ask the candidates on your doorstep

I've thought up some questions to ask candidates if they ever come knocking at your door. Print this off and keep it if they ever come knocking. The questions are:

Conservatives:

1. Why is your leader talking about holding a referendum on increasing Council Tax?
2. With all the development why isn't St Neots getting any of the New Homes Bonus?
3. Town Council: Cllr Chapman said you want a fund specifically for the annexed areas. Are you going to do a fund for each area in St Neots?
4. HDC: What services are you cutting in St Neots?
5. HDC: What guarantee is there that funding to the CAB won't be cut? Would you resign if a cut was made?

Liberal Democrats:

1. The Town Council got two damning audit reports. Why should I vote for you as no Town Councillor resigned over this?
2. HDC: You propose not to cut money to the voluntary sector. Where are you going to find the money?
3. I thought the Town Council promised to protected open spaces. Why are you not protecting Shady Walk?
4. Why did the Town Council give a grant to the racist playgroup?
5. Will you increase Council Tax?

Labour:

1. Who are you?
2. I've had no literature?
3. Why are you knocking on my door? Please go away!

Independent (St Neots Eat Ward only):

1. I'll be voting for you.

There off and the Conservatives have already got 3 seats on the Town Council

With the publication of the nominations for the local election on 5th May 2011 the Conservatives are already 3 seats up on the Town Council as the Liberal Democrats have failed to get enough candidates. In Eaton Ford they are two down. In Priory Park they are one down. Unlike Huntingdon, where Labour are fighting for the Town Council, Labour isn't putting up candidates at Town level. Probably hoping to keep the Conservatives out. At Town Council it is therefore a straight Liberal Democrat/Conservative fight.

Former Liberal Democrat leader of the Town Council, Derek Giles, isn't re-standing. There are a number of other losses with Alan Cummings also not re-standing but is standing in Little Paxton at the District elections there.

There is one Independent candidate standing in the single member ward of St Neots East.

If the Conservatives win there could be quite a few District and County Councillors on the Town. 7 District Councillors/candidates are standing for Town. With Catherine Hutton, already a County Councillor, this would make 8. Any controlling Conservative Group that emerged would be dominated by District Councillors.

Whatever the outcome there will be quite a few changes.

Labour have put up candidates for most of the wards except one leaving Eaton Ford as a straight Conservative/Liberal Democrat fight. Though whether the Liberal Democrats will have the resources to fight here is open to question.

The main fights are in:
Eaton Socon where Town Mayor Gordon Thorpe and Julia Hayward are facing an onslaught from Conservatives Andy Jennings and Roger Harrison.
Eynesbury where Paul Ursell is challenged by Rob Moores. The Liberal Democrats want to gain this seat at District and keep there seats at Town.
Priory Park where sitting District Councillor faces a Conservative challenge from Conservative Paula Longford.

Can the Liberal Democrats hang onto the Town Council and their District seats? Only the election will tell.

Local Elections: Priory Park

This is a Conservative/Liberal Democrat marginal. The District ward covers much of the north east of St Neots plus Love's Farm. The Town ward excludes Love's Farm which has its own Town ward. There are 4 seats up for election at the Town Council elections in this ward.

The Town Candidates (excluding Love's Farm) for the 4 seats are:

With only 3 Liberal Democrats standing in this 4 seat ward this gives the Conservatives 1 seat. For the Conservatives Barry Chapman is already a District Councillor. Ian Gardner has been brought in from Grafham. For the Liberal Democrats District Councillor Kendal Cooper is standing in both elections. Standing down is Bob Eaton, Alan Cummings and Leigh Ottotangui.  Martin Land, Agent, is having to stand to make up the numbers.

The 2010 District elections results:

This was in combination with the 2010 General Election. Therefore a much higher turnout.

The 2007 District elections results:

The 2007 Town Council results:

Local elections: Eaton Socon Ward

Eaton Socon could be the most fascinating result in the elections on 5th May 2011. With the recent resignation of the "fly me" Councillor Mandy Thomas this has meant both District seats are up for election. At the same time there are 4 Town Council seats up for election.

The District candidates are:

The Town candidates are:

For the Conservatives the both Andy Jennings and Roger Harrison are standing in both elections. For the Liberal Democrats Gordon Thorpe and Julia Hayward are standing in both elections. Also Eleanor Mason is standing for Town in this ward and for District in the Eaton Ford ward. No Labour candidates for the Town elections which probably means Labour wants its supporters to vote Liberal Democrat at the Town Council elections but can't say so.

The big news is that Derek Giles is not standing.

Previous elections

At the 2008 elections the result was:

At the 2007 elections the result was:

The 2007 Town Council elections was:

In 2007 the Conservatives increased their vote from 659 to 673. An increase of 14 votes. The Liberal Democrats increased their vote from 671 to 791. An extra 120 votes. Thorpe increase his vote by 40.

Local Elections: Eynesbury

This is a Conservative/Liberal Democrat marginal seat with 2 Conservatives and 1 Liberal Democrat at District level and 5 Liberal Democrats and 1 Conservative at Town Council level. The Town Ward has expanded and there is an extra seat for this election.

The Candidates for the District Elections are:

The Candidates for the 7 seats (1 extra because of boundary change) for Town Council are:

For the Conservatives Paul Ursell is standing in both elections. County Councillor Catherine Hutton and District Councillor Andrew Hansard are also standing for Town. For the Liberal Democrats Steve van de Kerkhove is District Councillor. Labour perennial Bill O'Connor is standing for District but Labour isn't standing for Town.

Previous elections

The 2010 District results:

This election was held in combination with the 2010 General Election.

The 2008 District results:

The 2007 District results:

The 2007 Town Council results:

This is not strictly comparable as the District Eynesbury ward took in the Town ward of EHPC but the Town Council ward didn't. With the annexation the ward boundary has changed to both boundaries are the same for the elections in May.

Could AV referendum favour the Liberal Democrats?

With the AV referendum, District Elections and Town Elections all happening on the same day this could be the game changer for the political parties in St Neots. Depending on the enthusiasm for the AV vote this may bring out voters who would normally turnout for local elections. This is therefore an unknown quantity. There isn't much to go on with referendum turnouts. The last UK one was in 1975 and Cambridgeshire had a 62.9% turnout. Scotland had a 60% turnout for their referendums in 1979 and 1997. In Wales it was 50% in 1997.

With AV not on the top of most political agendas, the turnout may be as low as 35%. Roughly what I would expect at a council election. The likelihood that this will attract those who support the Liberal Democrats and the minor parties could bring more voters out. This will mean higher election turnout but not as high as the general election. This could favour the Liberal Democrats at Town level if Labour don't stand.

On the otherhand UKIP will be supporting the Yes to AV campaign. Unless UKIP stands again at the District Elections and their vote will go largely locally to the Conservatives and, to a lesser extent, the Liberal Democrats.

What of Labour? If they put up even a minimal fight they could attract some of the vote going to the Liberal Democrats. This could cause the District Council seats to go Conservative and the Liberal Democrats, unless Labour stands for Town Council, win the Town Council.

The results of the Town Council elections are still up in the air. Labour not standing at these elections will favour the Liberal Democrats. Labour standing will favour the Conservatives. If Labour doesn't stand I say the Liberal Democrats should win. Martin Land is probably running the Liberal Democrat campaign and many other campaigns in Cambridgeshire so a Liberal Democrat win is not certain.

As a predominately Conservative voter I have mixed feelings about both political groups in St Neots and in HDC. Nearer the time I will set out which party and candidates I favour and why. It will probably be a mixture between Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. Both sides have their faults. With the Conservative run HDC being a financial disaster and, a few years back, the Liberal Democrat run St Neots Town Council was in the same position I find it hard to distinguish between the two.

With all up for grabs I would have thought the streets would be littered with political party literature. They are not. Unless I'm missing out because I've been blacklisted by both political parties in St Neots. According to one Liberal Democrat I'm the "most hated man in St Neots".

What should Labour do?

Labour is currently an insignificant party in St Neots. With the party now in opposition in Parliament and the Liberal Democrats have got into bed with the Conservatives it would seem a good opportunity to restart Labour in St Neots. Labour could start with a proper election campaign.  There is an opportunity for Labour to do something at the May elections.

Labour seems to have allowed the Liberal Democrats a free run at the Town Council elections. This allowed the Liberal Democrats to win the Town Council in 2007. It is a pity that Labour have nothing to show for this act of kindness. The Liberal Democrats squandered the 4 years going from one financial crisis to another.

Will Labour support the Liberal Democrats again by not fielding candidates for the Town Council elections? I hope not and nor should they. By doing so Labour will be endorsing a party which made many cuts. Time Labour stood alone. The Coalition will lose popularity and Labour should be the main beneficiary.

It will be no use complaining about the Liberal Democrats at future elections if Labour stands aside at for the Liberal Democrats at some elections.

Anthea leaves Huntingdon Labour

I see Anthea has left Huntingdon Labour for pastures new. This was announced by Anthea on Twitter.

Labour campaign just fails

With an incumbent Labour Government in a poor third, (John Major didn't achieve this low in 1997) this seems to have spread to local activists.

At Anthea's campaign launch there were a few Labour posters on display. On my cycle route there are a couple of Labour candidates for the local elections. I though they would have a poster or two up informing passers by to Vote Labour or Vote Anthea. Neither had posters up. This includes the Branch Secretary Bill O'Connor who is standing in Eynesbury.

Not a single Labour poster up in either house. Are these Labour candidates embarrassed of this Labour Government or Anthea? Or is this just Labour giving up on St Neots/Huntingdon.

Unison still misses the point over Hinchingbrooke

St Neots News and Crier - 15/04/2010

I see that Unison is doing its bit by blaming the Labour Party creation - the Strategic Health Authority,  for implementing the Labour policy of franchising this hospital. So who should Unison be lobbying and blaming for what is going on at Hinchingbrooke. Try the Health Secretary Andy Burnham.

If Labour wins the General Election expect more franchising of the NHS by Labour. If Unison is so opposed to franchising why are they giving loads of money to Labour?

Where is Anthea Cox in all this?

Comment on letters to St Neots News and Crier - 08/04/2010 digital edition

St Neots News and Crier - 08/04/2010 digital edition

Just comments on one letter this week.

Voters need all arguments - The minor party candidates are signalling their intention with an alternative hustings event on the same night in the same town as the Hunts Post hustings. Good for them. It is about time we hold all the candidates to account. This seat is a seen as a win for the Conservatives. Djanogly with all his troubles over expenses should be held to account for his expenses.

I feel all parliamentary candidates should be held to account not just the "top 3".

Having Anthea Cox (Labour) at the hustings is wrong. Labour is doing terribly round here. Virtually given up with the local elections. This is the Hunts Post is giving life to a dead campaign. Huntingdon CLP is twinned with Bedford CLP so they'll be off to Bedford campaigning to try to hold that seat!

Franchising and Hinchingbrooke NHS Hospital

As the Labour Government carries on with the privatisation of the NHS, one point should be made. These bidders aren't here for social reasons. The bidders are here to make a profit. Nothing wrong in that. Just, I don't see where the profit is going to be made. Unless the NHS is going to massage the finances it could be that all the bidders withdraw. The Labour Government was this privatisation to go ahead. What does Anthea Cox have to say on all this?

In 1997 it was 24 hours to save the NHS. Surely, it should have been: "24 hours to PRIVATISE the NHS".

My comments on letters in News and Crier - 25/03/2010

St Neots News and Crier - 25/03/2010 digital edition

Anger over parking charges - LM Pearson - misses the point. HDC collects business rates. It then sends them off to Central Government. S Pearce - Again HDC collect the business rates for Central Government.

Other cuts are more worrying - D. Gadenne hits the concerns right on the head. I wonder why?

Tories vow to fight on - Two letters from the "St Neots Conservatives" look to blame the Liberal Democrats instead of blaming their Conservative colleagues who took the decision.

Cllr Barry Chapman goes on the attack blaming the Liberal Democrats. Apparently, the Liberal Democrat petition is a "cynical attempt to create negativity against those St Neots Councillors who are fighting on behalf of our town."

What planet is Cllr Chapman on? The Conservative petition is the ruse to deflect the fact that the Conservatives on HDC took a decision to impose parking charges. All Cllr Chapman is doing is SPIN, SPIN, SPIN!

Cllr Chapman also trumpets the deal brokered by the Conservatives over the toilets. A deal which will cost the Town Council about £30,000 a year.

Cllr Jennifer Bird just shows how much out of touch this Councillor is. Blaming the Liberal Democrats for a decision taken by her Conservative colleagues on HDC is just spin. Cllr Bird also needs to look at HDC finances. Cllr Bird asks: "Has the quest for increasing revenue at HDC overcome common sense?" No! The quest is for finding money to cut the deficit will mean more money raising ideas need to happen.

Already Conservative controlled HDC is looking to up car parking charges.

Broadband is vital - That is what Anthea Cox, Labour Party Candidate, says in her letter. Is this the Labour Party campaign? Write a couple of letters to the local newspapers! Back to the letter. Anthea tries to rubbish the Conservative Broadband policy. What Anthea "forgets" to inform readers is the Labour plans mean a 50 pence a month charge on all landlines. Nothing about the closure of St Neots campus.

I see Anthea has been out campaigning

I see Anthea has started her General Election campaign. Out on a Sunday and canvassing in Coldhams Crescent in Huntingdon, Anthea has started the 2 person campaign (someone had to take the photo). At this rate Anthea and Labour should have the whole constituency canvassed by 2015 in time for the next general election.

Fenstanton By-election UPDATE - Candidate profiles

David O'Neill - Former Councillor on St Ives Town Council. Runs David O'Neill Cars.

Colin Saunderson - Currently a Town Councillor on St Ives Town Council. Stood at the 2009 County Elections in The Hemingfords and Fenstanton Division. In 2008 he came second in the St Ives West ward.

Angela Richards - Stood for Labour in 2009 at the County Elections in St Ives and came last behind the Official Monster Raving Loony Party candidate. Angela stood in 2008 in St Ives East where she came last. At the 2007 Angela stood in Fenstanton where she came last.

It is a pity that UKIP didn't put up a candidate. To do well the Liberal Democrats need get shed loads of votes. Election date 25th February 2010

Snow excuse! Another month without political literature

Winter is still here. Snow has been on the ground. There was a bit of traffic disruption. But all this made it onto my doormat via people delivering to each house. This month I even got a District Wide.
So what is missing? Not one leaflet from any of the political parties who want me to vote for them. Nor, it seems, has the winter leaflet from Djanogly got through. This cost £2,867.47 and was paid from the taxpayer funded Djanogly's Parliamentary Communications Allowance.

If anyone has had this delivered please e-mail me here: snrednek@rocketmail.com

Fenstanton By-election UPDATE - Candidates list

List of candidates for the by-election on 25th February 2010. Link to summary file.

Previous result.

Is fighting Huntingdon at the General Election the best use of time and resources?

One reason the General Election will pass the Huntingdon constituency by as there are far better opportunities for electoral gains around the Huntingdon constituency. I'll be using figures from UKpollingreport.co.uk.

The Conservatives: Whilst Djanogly has problems with expenses, the problems could arise in the constituency of Cambridgeshire North West. Conservative MP Shailesh Vara is now facing a problem with an organised UKIP which did rather well at the County/Euro elections.

The Bedford Constituency is a Conservative target seat 67. Whilst the Liberal Democrats did well and won the Mayoral race last year, the constituency boundaries are within the Bedford Borough Council boundary.

Cambridgeshire North East looks very safe for the Conservatives. Cambridgeshire South is less safe and is number 60 on the Liberal Democrats target list of seats. Peterborough is Labour Target seat number 48. With  Labour finding it hard to hold onto safe seats this target list can be disregarded.

Mid Bedfordshire is also an outside possibility of not being safe as Nadine Dorries is getting into trouble over her second home allowance claims. North East Bedfordshire looks safe for the Conservatives.

The Liberal Democrats: The Cambridge Constituency is the premier seat the Liberal Democrats need to keep. As there are better prospects in Cambridgeshire North West, Cambridgeshire South  and Bedford it is unlikely the Liberal Democrats will flock to campaign in Huntingdon.

Labour: Won't be fighting much here. On the Labour website I find the Huntingdon CLP is twinned with Bedford CLP. In all likelihood Labour activists will be encouraged to go and fight to save Bedford for Labour.

Apart from a long trek to Buckingham where could UKIP campaign effectively for Nigel Farage, UKIP coudl campaign locally. I see Peter Reeve is UKIP candidate for North East Cambridgeshire. With a basic organisation in North West Cambridgeshire it would be easier to campaign there rather than anywhere else.

In conclusion: If I was in charge of each party I would be looking to maximise my resources by aiming activists to where the numbers say they should go. The Conservatives should be looking at North West Cambridgeshire and Bedford constituencies. The Liberal Democrats should be aiming for Cambridgeshire South and Bedford. Labour activists should be travelling to Bedford. UKIP should be fighting in North West Cambridgeshire. Whatever happens it is likely the General Election will pass Huntingdon by and the political parties have already decided this.