Another look at the Huntingdon General Election result

Party	Candidate	2010 Vote	Notional 2005 Vote	+/-	2010 %	Notional 2005 %	+/-
Conservative	Jonathan Djanogly	26516	26646	-130	48.9	50.8	-1.9
Liberal Democrat	Martin Land	15697	13799	+1898	28.9	26.3	+2.6
Labour	Anthea Cox	5982	9821	-3839	11.0	18.7	-7.7
UKIP	Ian Curtis	3258	2152	+1106	6.0	4.1	+1.9
Green	John Clare	652	0	+652		0	+1.2
APP	Carrie Holliman	181	0	+181		0	+0.3
Independent	Jonathan Salt	1432	0	+1432		0	+2.6
OMRLP	Lord Toby Jug	548	0	+548		0	+1.0
Turnout		54266	52418		65.1	62.5
Majority		10819	12847	-2028		24.5

I thought I would take another look at the final result of the General Election. I'll go through each of the top three parties.
The Conservatives: The Djanogly vote held up extremely well. Far better than I expected. His percentage dropped slightly by 1.9%. In comparison to other seats surrounding Huntingdon the Conservative increases are:North West Cambridgeshire: +4.8% North East Cambridgeshire: +4.6%South Cambridgeshire: +2.7%North East Bedfordshire: +5.9%Djanogly's -1.9% is not good, but not a killer. Having been returned this represents an end to his expenses' problems.
The Liberal Democrats: Martin Land made some progress but not that much. All the hype over the leadership debates didn't materialise. The 2.6% increase doesn't seem much. In comparison:North West Cambridgeshire: -1.8% North East Cambridgeshire: +3.0%South Cambridgeshire: +4.7%North East Bedfordshire: +0.9%
The Martin Land campaign was mainly aimed at attracting Labour supporters. Obviously, from the result, this is what he achieved. Adding 2.6% to this total is minor and is mid-range of what was achieved from surrounding constituencies. 
Throughout this campaign I though Martin Land was aiming at the wrong people if he wanted to win! Martin Land had a go at me. He said:
"I’m told that somebody who knows far more about politics than me thinks that my being Agent for some of my colleagues and for our Disttrict Candidates compromises my ability to stand for Parliament. But, you see, it’s my job. And like most (though not all) candidates in this election, I have to earn my keep. Actually, when you have 37 years of campaigning behind you, these tasks are relatively routine and don’t prevent me from doing a very serious job as a parliamentary candidate as a some people will perhaps be surprised to see on May 7th."
At 2.6% this wasn't a very good job. The anti-conservative theme is something Martin Land has longed believed. In a blog Martin said:
"that the Tories remain a coalition between the blatantly self-interested, closet racists, and homophobes.."

I know Eynesbury was a local election campaign but Steve van de Kerkhove ran a pretty much non attack campaign which didn't call for Labour support. He did very well with an 8.7% increase.

Whilst bombarded with literature, the Liberal Democrats ran a lack lustre campaign and may very well have been campaigning elsewhere. 

Labour: This was always going to be a bad campaign for Labour. Anthea did quite well by only allowing the vote to drop by 7.7% instead of 11%. Not good, but could have been worse. 

General Election Results - Huntingdon Constituency

Djanogly wins and wins well. In the surrounding areas the Conservatives pushed ahead with a 5% increase in their share of votes. Djanogly was a 1.9% decrease. Roughly 7% down. Most of this vote went to UKIP. I feel Anthea didn't do that badly as other seats. 

The main problem was Martin Land. He had many jobs to do plus being the parliamentary candidate for Huntingdon. Good looking literature but he aimed this at an anti-Conservative alliance. To win in Huntingdon the Liberal Democrats need to get Conservative supporters on his side and this he failed. Even if Land had got an anti-Djanogly coalition together, without Conservative supporters he would have still lost.

Party	Candidate	2010 Vote	Notional 2005 Vote	+/-	2010 %	Notional 2005 %	+/-
Conservative	Jonathan Djanogly	26516	26646	-130	48.9	50.8	-1.9
Liberal Democrat	Martin Land	15697	13799	+1898	28.9	26.3	+2.6
Labour	Anthea Cox	5982	9821	-3839	11.0	18.7	-7.7
UKIP	Ian Curtis	3258	2152	+1106	6.0	4.1	+1.9
Green	John Clare	652	0	+652		0	+1.2
APP	Carrie Holliman	181	0	+181		0	+0.3
Independent	Jonathan Salt	1432	0	+1432		0	+2.6
OMRLP	Lord Toby Jug	548	0	+548		0	+1.0
Turnout		54266	52418		65.1	62.5
Majority		10819	12847	-2028		24.5

As Djanogly has won then his problems over his expenses should now be put behind us. The electorate have spoken and he has won. 

Elections 2010 - The Results

Exit polls.

The BBC, Sky and ITN have banded together to have one exit poll.

Conservatives: 307
Labour: 255
Liberal Democrats: 59
Exitpol.ly has Huntingdon for the Liberal Democrats but this is on only 4 votes.

I'll be looking for are seats around St Neots to make comparisons. I'll also look for other comparators.

Update: Does Peter Robinson's defeat point the way to the Huntingdon result?
Update: Does Lembit Opik defeat point the way to the Huntingdonshire result?

Update: Lansley wins Cambridgeshire South. Labour vote dropped massively. More here.

Update: Conservatives hold Cambridgeshire North East and Bedfordshire North East.

Update: Conservatives hold Cambridgeshire North West.

Update: Andrew Gilbert gets a 2.7% swing from Labour to the Conservatives in Birkenhead.

Blogging through the night/My predictions

I will be blogging through the night of 6th May/7th May especially when some of the more local results start comings in. I will be refining my predictions as we go through the night on the potential Huntingdon result.

I suggest the Huntingdon Constituency result could be the following:

Party	Candidate	Prediction 2010 Vote	2005 Vote	+/-	Prediction 2010 %	2005 %	+/-
Conservative	Jonathan Djanogly	22000	26646	-4646	40	50.8	-10.8
Liberal Democrat	Martin Land	16500	13799	+2701	30	26.3	+3.7
Labour	Anthea Cox	2200	9821	-7621	4	18.7	-14.7
UKIP	Ian Curtis	2750	2152	+598	5	4.1	+0.9
Green	John Clare	1650	0	+1650	3	0	+3.0
APP	Carrie Holliman		0		-	0
Independent	Jonathan Salt	8250	0	+8250	15	0	+15.0
OMRLP	Lord Toby Jug		0		-	0
Turnout		55000	52418			62.5
Majority		5500	12847		10	24.5

There are a few comparators like North East Cambridgeshire, North West Cambridgeshire, South Cambridgeshire. I will use these seat to refine my prediction as the night goes on. I will look for other seats to compare my prediction with.

I do feel the Labour vote will be dramatically cut and this vote will flow to Martin Land, Jonathan Salt and to John Clare. I do feel the Conservative vote will be cut and this will flow Ian Curtis, Jonathan Salt and some to Martin Land.

The big unknown is Jonathan Salt and his Independent campaign. I don't know how to gauge his support. On some scores I've got him losing his deposit. On other I have him winning.

I do feel there is an ambivalence towards Jonathan Djanogly. It is not within the realms of possibility that Jonathan Djanogly could lose or just win. On the other hand he could win by miles. It is the Conservatives to lose this seat. On past local by-election results they have achieved this rather spectacularly. Ramsey (not in this Constituency), Huntingdon North, Fenstanton and even Eynesbury have all gone the wrong way.

WARNING: All of this may be wishful thinking on my part.

Republished - The Euro/County result analysis

I thought I would republish part of the analysis of the European Elections results in comparison with the County Council election results.

The 2009 Euro Elections were held in tandem with the County elections. This gave a chance to compare local election results where few parties stand to the Euros where many parties stand. This analysis can show where voters moved from the main parties to minor parties.

The County results were roughly the following: Conservative: 23,950 Liberal Democrat: 14,150 UKIP: 3,900 Labour: 2,984 Green 1,440 Others: 566	At the Euro elections: Conservatives: 16,543: (-7,407) Liberal Democrat: 6,498 (-7,652) Green: 3,332 (+1,892) Labour: 2,421 (-563) UKIP: 10,422 (+6,522) Others: 7,812
The difference between the two elections are as follows: Conservatives: -7407: Liberal Democrat: -7,652 Green: +1,892 Labour: -563 UKIP:  +6,522 Others: +7,246	The others are: BNP: +2,377 ED: +930 UKF: +1,354 Animals Count: +343 Christian Party: +656 Jury Team: +226 No to EU: +482 Libertas: +354 Socialist Labour: +280 Independent: + 332 OMRLP: -566

Conservatives: They lost a large minority of their support between the local elections and the Euros. I would suggest much of this support went to UKIP. But not all. Some went to the Jury Team, Libertas, UK First and the BNP.

Liberal Democrats: A total disaster as their local vote didn't translate into their Euro vote. 54% of their local support went elsewhere at the Euros. Some of the vote went Green but many others must have voted UKIP or even BNP.

Labour: This was a bad election for Labour who were beaten into 5th place in the Euros behind the Greens and not much in front of the BNP. The loss in Labour vote is not explained by a transfer of voters to the BNP. It can be explained by the transfer of votes to other left wing parties.

UKIP: They did very well at both local and Euro elections. With the Euro vote UKIP is the number 2 party behind the Conservatives.

At the Euro elections the Conservatives got 35% of the vote. The Liberal Democrats failed translate their local vote to their national vote. It was UKIP gaining support for both Conservatives and Liberal Democrats which saw its vote rise to become the second party in terms of votes.


In conclusion: At the General Election the electors vote to return a candidate to Parliament. It is obvious that if you vote for Djanogly you vote for this expenses scandal tarnished candidate.

My New Year Wishes

My wishes for this New Year are:

Djanogly loses his seat.

The Conservatives win the General Election.

Huntingdonshire District Council becomes a Hung Council.

Keep on reading in the New Year.

Major made us citizens - Under Labour we are now subjects!

A letter appeared from Anthea Cox, The Labour Party candidate for the forthcoming General Election, in the ever excellent St Neots News and Crier. The way I read the letter it was implying HM The Queen agreed with the Labour Government. Now I'm a bit of a right-wing republican monarchist when it comes to the British Constitution. HM The Queen at the opening of Parliament is given a speech by Her Majesty's Government, currently this rotten Labour lot, and has to read it out. The Bills and other measures are that of the elected Government and not of HM The Queen herself.

For instance, many years ago, as Queen of Jamaica, HM The Queen read out the forthcoming legislation for the Jamaican Parliament. This included legislation pertaining to the Law of the Sea which the British Government opposed at the time. So HM The Queen does what each of HM Governments tell her to do in whichever Realm she is in.

What has really annoyed me is the fact that Anthea refers to us as subjects. Not just once, but three times. Now I'm no fan of John Major but he did make us all citizens. Labour sees us as Subjects and not Citizens.

My voting intentions for the next elections!

My current selection of which party I intend to vote for at each election is:
Next General Election - UKIP (only because they are the only ones likely to give Djanogly a challenge). I will only change my vote if Djanogly stands down.
Next District Elections - The Liberal Democrats. I know Cllr Gordon Thorpe is Deputy Leader of the HDC Liberal Democrats and this causes me concern. But even with his track record I have to say this Conservative administration has to go. Not changing my vote on this one.
Next Town Elections - Conservative. Not too sure about how the Conservatives would run the Town Council. Again this is more of a vote against the incumbent rather than a vote for the current opposition. If the Liberal Democrats can get the Town Council on a level footing and loose Giles and Thorpe I could vote for them.
Next County Elections - Conservative/Haven't decided. Voting for Catherine Hutton if re-standing in 2013. I haven't decided on my other vote. The Eynesbury and Eaton Socon Division is a 2 member division so we have two votes.
Next Euro - Conservative. I like the sceptical stance they take. Not everything the EU does is good. Nor is everything the EU does is bad. On the whole better to be in than out.

Liberal Democrats are still slow on the uptake!

A Conservative MP in trouble over his expenses. A Conservative run District Council in massive trouble over their budget. I would have thought the Liberal Democrats would have been up for the fight. According to one Liberal Democrat they are. Except they have no parliamentary candidate. In the Cambridge constituency the MP stood down on 5th November and the closing date for prospective candidates is 5th December. In Huntingdon they are just ahead with the closing date on 4th December. So really they have just got around to starting the selection process for their parliamentary candidate. For all those interested the link to the advert is here.

Many other constituencies have already got their Liberal Democrat candidates in place. Huntingdon is one of the last seats. UKIP, The Green Party, Labour and of course the Conservatives have all selected their parliamentary candidates for Huntingdon. Obviously any Liberal Democrat candidate will now be a paper candidate whilst the local Liberal Democrats activists are packed off to campaign in either Bedford or Cambridge.