Fenstanton By-election Result 25th February 2010

The Result

This is a definite win for the Liberal Democrats and just adds to the woes of the Conservatives and Djanogly. Whilst a decisive win for the Liberal Democrats, the result still points to a Djanogly win at the General Election. Though not a massive romp home.

Not a resounding success for the Liberal Democrats who needed a bigger win to make progress. What is striking is the loss in Conservative vote. 105 votes represents a 23% loss in vote by the Conservatives over the 2007 result. This follows on from the Huntingdon North by-election where the Conservatives lost because their vote dropped. It looks to me there is a substantial minority of Conservative supporters who aren't supporting the Conservatives. I reckon this is the Djanogly effect.

According to Djanogly, he went campaigning in Fenstanton. Is this the curse of Djanogly? A failing association. Some bad local election results. The trouble is the Conservatives decided to keep this Jonah on after the expenses scandal broke. Wrong decision? Too late to change their minds.


Should Djanogly and the Conservatives be worried for 6th May? I feel he should be. Whilst he will get home there will be a dent in his majority. The local Conservatives should also be worried by a loss in vote which could shrink their majority.

What is this?

This is a rare breed only seen out at election times and it is called a Conservative campaigning team. Recently seen out in Fenstanton, where there is an election, this rare breed has only been photographed on rare occasions.

Sightings have been few and far between. In St Neots it is well known there are many Conservatives out there but I have not see them campaigning in such a team. This shy breed is slowly dying out. This hasn't been helped by "The Djanogly" who has a rather large feathered nest in London. Though the nest is safe for now as the idea of reducing 2 trees has been withdrawn.

On a serious note. If the Conservatives have been putting all this effort into Fenstanton, even with Djanogly reportedly on the doorstep, then anything other than a win will not be good for the Conservatives.

Letters in the News and Crier 11/2/10

My comments on some of the letters in this weeks News and Crier.

Anger over rural buses - Michael Sneath has written on behalf of the Labour candidate Angela Richards at the Fenstanton HDC by-election. The letter is about buses and how the village of Fenstanton has been left without a bus service. That is an election issue. But is this how the Labour Party is going to campaign with letters in the papers? And why is the Agent writing on behalf of the candidate? Can't she write for herself! There have been doubts about letters apparently written by Anthea Cox. Is this a case of Labour putting up "paper candidates". The result may give us a clue!

Countryside Campaign - Is a letter from Alan Fitzgerald who is writing to get people to support the CPRE. The General Election is coming. Pressure Groups will be using the media to press their case by using the public to lobby on their behalf. The CPRE is using the method of getting the public to e-mail candidates in support of their manifesto. Of course the CPRE is in competition with other Pressure Groups using the public to lobby candidates on their behalf.

This isn't democracy - Bob Mullineaux is right in what is wrong. But is wrong in his prescription of how to correct this. The problem with his prescription of an Open Primary for the selection of a candidate costs money. As pointed out in this blog, the Conservatives simply don't have the money to have a postal ballot as held in Totnes. Opening up the selection with an open public meeting, as for the Bedford mayoral candidate will not involve the whole electorate, just some. My answer is for the public to join their local political party or have a properly conducted, publicly funded open primary election.

Fenstanton By-election UPDATE - Candidate profiles

David O'Neill - Former Councillor on St Ives Town Council. Runs David O'Neill Cars.

Colin Saunderson - Currently a Town Councillor on St Ives Town Council. Stood at the 2009 County Elections in The Hemingfords and Fenstanton Division. In 2008 he came second in the St Ives West ward.

Angela Richards - Stood for Labour in 2009 at the County Elections in St Ives and came last behind the Official Monster Raving Loony Party candidate. Angela stood in 2008 in St Ives East where she came last. At the 2007 Angela stood in Fenstanton where she came last.

It is a pity that UKIP didn't put up a candidate. To do well the Liberal Democrats need get shed loads of votes. Election date 25th February 2010

Fenstanton By-election UPDATE - Candidates list

List of candidates for the by-election on 25th February 2010. Link to summary file.

Previous result.

Why the Fenstanton By-election matters

So why is this by-election important? Well 9 weeks after this by-election Huntingdonshire will go to the polls to elect a MPs and Councillors (not all wards up for election). This will give a good indication on how each party is doing in the forthcoming elections.

At the last Fenstanton Election.

		2007 Candidates
Electorate	%	Candidate	Party	Vote
2,349	37.6	Dakers	Conservative	442 - elected
		Richards	Labour	45
		Saunderson	Liberal Democrat	430

This gives a majority of 12.

So what are the aims of each party?

For the Conservatives they just need to win. Losing in a close election whilst another seat gone will need to not be so bad and would not indicate a shift in support for the Conservatives.
The Liberal Democrats don't just need to win. They need to take this seat with a shed load of votes. Whilst a win would be an advance, the Liberal Democrats would need to win by double the Conservative vote to make the Constituency and the Council into a winnable scenario! (For example: LD's 600 votes against a Conservative vote of 300)
Labour needs to do better than 45.

Fenstanton Ward HDC by-election 25th February 2010

A by-election is being held for the Fenstanton Ward following the resignation of Mr P Dakers. Nominations close at 12 noon on 29th January 2010. At the last election in 2007 this ward was a Conservative/Liberal Democrat marginal. Even if UKIP don't put up a candidate this could be a good indication of local political feelings towards the national parties. If UKIP do get a candidate up and run a good campaign this would make the result very interesting.

A 2,439 electorate is smaller than most of the wards. Looking at the map of the ward it is a fairly compact ward and should be easy for any party to campaign in.

The reason why this could be very interesting is the result could be a good indication of how the electorate feels about Jonathan Djanogly MP and the Conservative run HDC.