Friday, February 26, 2010

Fenstanton By-election Result 25th February 2010

The Result

This is a definite win for the Liberal Democrats and just adds to the woes of the Conservatives and Djanogly. Whilst a decisive win for the Liberal Democrats, the result still points to a Djanogly win at the General Election. Though not a massive romp home.

Not a resounding success for the Liberal Democrats who needed a bigger win to make progress. What is striking is the loss in Conservative vote. 105 votes represents a 23% loss in vote by the Conservatives over the 2007 result. This follows on from the Huntingdon North by-election where the Conservatives lost because their vote dropped. It looks to me there is a substantial minority of Conservative supporters who aren't supporting the Conservatives. I reckon this is the Djanogly effect.

According to Djanogly, he went campaigning in Fenstanton. Is this the curse of Djanogly? A failing association. Some bad local election results. The trouble is the Conservatives decided to keep this Jonah on after the expenses scandal broke. Wrong decision? Too late to change their minds.

Should Djanogly and the Conservatives be worried for 6th May? I feel he should be. Whilst he will get home there will be a dent in his majority. The local Conservatives should also be worried by a loss in vote which could shrink their majority.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

At least it aint labour