Monday, February 1, 2010

Is fighting Huntingdon at the General Election the best use of time and resources?

One reason the General Election will pass the Huntingdon constituency by as there are far better opportunities for electoral gains around the Huntingdon constituency. I'll be using figures from UKpollingreport.co.uk.

The Conservatives: Whilst Djanogly has problems with expenses, the problems could arise in the constituency of Cambridgeshire North West. Conservative MP Shailesh Vara is now facing a problem with an organised UKIP which did rather well at the County/Euro elections.

The Bedford Constituency is a Conservative target seat 67. Whilst the Liberal Democrats did well and won the Mayoral race last year, the constituency boundaries are within the Bedford Borough Council boundary.

Cambridgeshire North East looks very safe for the Conservatives. Cambridgeshire South is less safe and is number 60 on the Liberal Democrats target list of seats. Peterborough is Labour Target seat number 48. With  Labour finding it hard to hold onto safe seats this target list can be disregarded.

Mid Bedfordshire is also an outside possibility of not being safe as Nadine Dorries is getting into trouble over her second home allowance claims. North East Bedfordshire looks safe for the Conservatives.

The Liberal Democrats: The Cambridge Constituency is the premier seat the Liberal Democrats need to keep. As there are better prospects in Cambridgeshire North West, Cambridgeshire South  and Bedford it is unlikely the Liberal Democrats will flock to campaign in Huntingdon.

Labour: Won't be fighting much here. On the Labour website I find the Huntingdon CLP is twinned with Bedford CLP. In all likelihood Labour activists will be encouraged to go and fight to save Bedford for Labour.


Apart from a long trek to Buckingham where could UKIP campaign effectively for Nigel Farage, UKIP coudl campaign locally. I see Peter Reeve is UKIP candidate for North East Cambridgeshire. With a basic organisation in North West Cambridgeshire it would be easier to campaign there rather than anywhere else.

In conclusion: If I was in charge of each party I would be looking to maximise my resources by aiming activists to where the numbers say they should go. The Conservatives should be looking at North West Cambridgeshire and Bedford constituencies. The Liberal Democrats should be aiming for Cambridgeshire South and Bedford. Labour activists should be travelling to Bedford. UKIP should be fighting in North West Cambridgeshire. Whatever happens it is likely the General Election will pass Huntingdon by and the political parties have already decided this.

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