Tuesday, May 3, 2011

The Conservatives will win the District. But by how much?

The District Elections are will be Conservative win. How big the win is depends on how the Liberal Democrats vote and whether UKIP can garner enough votes.

Unless the voters utterly reject the Conservatives all over Huntingdonshire, the Conservatives are the certain winners at these elections. This Council is elected in thirds. So 22 out of 52 seats are up for election (including 2 by-elections). The wards and who currently has the seat is listed below:

Brampton - Liberal Democrat marginal
Earith - Conservative safe
Ellington - Liberal Democrat marginal
Fenstanton - Liberal Democrat marginal
Gransden and The Offords - Conservative safe
The Hemingfords - Conservative safe
Huntingdon East - Conservative marginal
Huntingdon North - Liberal Democrat marginal
Huntingdon West - Conservative safe
Kimbolton and Staughton - Conservative safe
Little Paxton - Conservative safe
Ramsey - UKIP marginal
Somersham - Conservative safe
St Ives South - Conservative safe
St Neots Eaton Ford - Conservative safe
St Neots Eaton Socon - Liberal Democrat marginal
St Neots Eaton Socon (by-election) - Conservative marginal
St Neots Eynesbury - Conservative Marginal
St Neots Priory Park - Liberal Democrat marginal
Stilton - Conservative safe
Upwood and The Raveleys - Conservative safe
Yaxley and Farcet - Conservative safe

The current state of the parties are: Conservative 37 - Liberal Democrats 12 - UKIP  2 - Independent 1.  

If the Conservatives lost all 15 seats they would be the largest party with 22 seats. This won't happen. With 12 out of the 15 seats classified as safe and only 3 as marginal the outcome is certainly Conservative. As all the Liberal Democrats seats are classified as marginal they could lose all 6. UKIP should retain their seat in Ramsey though it would go Conservative if they don't.

The spread of seats for the parties are:

Conservatives spread 34 - 44 seats
Liberal Democrats spread 6 - 15 seats

St Neots and Huntingdon should be battlegrounds for the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.

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