Sunday, June 6, 2010

Another look at the Huntingdon General Election result

Party Candidate 2010 Vote
2005 Vote
2010 % Notional
2005 %
Conservative Jonathan Djanogly 26516 26646 -130 48.9 50.8 -1.9
Liberal Democrat Martin Land 15697 13799 +1898 28.9 26.3 +2.6
Labour Anthea Cox 5982 9821 -3839 11.0 18.7 -7.7
UKIP Ian Curtis 3258 2152 +1106 6.0 4.1 +1.9
Green John Clare 652 0 +652 0 +1.2
APP Carrie Holliman 181 0 +181 0 +0.3
Independent Jonathan Salt 1432 0 +1432 0 +2.6
OMRLP Lord Toby Jug 548 0 +548 0 +1.0
Turnout 54266 52418 65.1 62.5
Majority 10819 12847 -2028 24.5

I thought I would take another look at the final result of the General Election. I'll go through each of the top three parties.

The Conservatives: The Djanogly vote held up extremely well. Far better than I expected. His percentage dropped slightly by 1.9%. In comparison to other seats surrounding Huntingdon the Conservative increases are:
North West Cambridgeshire: +4.8% 
North East Cambridgeshire: +4.6%
South Cambridgeshire: +2.7%
North East Bedfordshire: +5.9%
Djanogly's -1.9% is not good, but not a killer. Having been returned this represents an end to his expenses' problems.

The Liberal Democrats: Martin Land made some progress but not that much. All the hype over the leadership debates didn't materialise. The 2.6% increase doesn't seem much. In comparison:
North West Cambridgeshire: -1.8% 
North East Cambridgeshire: +3.0%
South Cambridgeshire: +4.7%
North East Bedfordshire: +0.9%

The Martin Land campaign was mainly aimed at attracting Labour supporters. Obviously, from the result, this is what he achieved. Adding 2.6% to this total is minor and is mid-range of what was achieved from surrounding constituencies. 

Throughout this campaign I though Martin Land was aiming at the wrong people if he wanted to win! Martin Land had a go at me. He said:

"I’m told that somebody who knows far more about politics than me thinks that my being Agent for some of my colleagues and for our Disttrict Candidates compromises my ability to stand for Parliament. But, you see, it’s my job. And like most (though not all) candidates in this election, I have to earn my keep. Actually, when you have 37 years of campaigning behind you, these tasks are relatively routine and don’t prevent me from doing a very serious job as a parliamentary candidate as a some people will perhaps be surprised to see on May 7th."

At 2.6% this wasn't a very good job. The anti-conservative theme is something Martin Land has longed believed. In a blog Martin said:

"that the Tories remain a coalition between the blatantly self-interested, closet racists, and homophobes.."

I know Eynesbury was a local election campaign but Steve van de Kerkhove ran a pretty much non attack campaign which didn't call for Labour support. He did very well with an 8.7% increase.

Whilst bombarded with literature, the Liberal Democrats ran a lack lustre campaign and may very well have been campaigning elsewhere. 

Labour: This was always going to be a bad campaign for Labour. Anthea did quite well by only allowing the vote to drop by 7.7% instead of 11%. Not good, but could have been worse. 

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