Wednesday, June 1, 2011

AV - The Huntingdonshire result analysis

The result of the AV referendum for Huntingdonshire is:

Yes: 15,145 
No: 38,725

The vote data for the local elections were:

Conservatives: 22729
Liberal Democrats: 8745
Labour: 5401
UKIP: 3492
Independent: 811

There were a total of 21 wards up for election.

Conservatives: 1082 per ward in 21.
Liberal Democrats: 437 per ward in 20 wards.
Labour: 270 per ward in 20 wards.
UKIP: 317 per ward in 11 wards.
Independent: 811 in 1 ward.

The electorate at those wards voting was: 43.57%

With the non local elections ward voting at the referendum there was little drop between the two sets of results with those not having locals coming out stronger at 46..58% of the referendum vote.

With the vote split at 72% No and 28% Yes then roughly the AV vote in the local elections went NO 29603 and YES 11575. If the YES campaign for AV which included UKIP + Liberal Democrats + some Labour votes are totalled up the YES campaign didn't attract all their voters. There was a percentage of voters in the YES camp parties who voted NO. 

In the end it was the strong NO campaign which brought out the Conservative vote. A tactical mistake by the Liberal Democrats who believed the YES AV campaign would help energise their supporters. In reality it didn't. All it did was energise the Conservatives to get their vote out with the NO to AV campaign and helped them win the local elections.

1 comment:

Julia said...

I think also there was a strong union-based NO vote, which brought Labour up a bit and led to more spoilt papers than normal in town wards which were only contested by Con/LD.

NO2AV were very successful in conflating their vote with anti-Clegg sentiment, and YES2AV were simply dire.