Wednesday, October 26, 2011

The next District Election won by the Conservatives

Even before the polls are being thought about the Conservatives have won the next District Elections. Whilst the overall result is in no doubt, the individual ward elections are still to be fought and won.

These are the wards up in the electoral cycle:

St Ives East - Conservative - Jason Abelwhite (Council Leader)
Brampton - Liberal Democrat
Godmanchester  - Conservative
Huntingdon East - Liberal Democrats
Huntingdon North  - Conservative
Ramsey -  Conservative
Sawtry  - Independent
Somersham - Conservative
St Ives West - Conservative
St Neots Eaton Ford - Conservative
St Neots Eaton Socon - Conservative
St Neots Eynesbury - Conservative
The Hemingfords - Conservative
Warboys and Bury - Liberal Democrats
Yaxley - Conservative

There are 52 Councillors sitting on HDC. 27 for a majority. The current political make up is:
41 Conservatives
8 Liberal Democrats
1 Independent

There are 15 seats up for election.
11 Conservatives
3 Liberal Democrats
1 Independent

The Conservative spread is 45 seats - 30 seats
The Liberal Democrats is  12 - 5 seats
UKIP is 3 - 2 seats
Independent 1 - 0 seats.

Even if the Conservatives drop all their seats up for election they will still retain 30 seats. A majority of 8.

The battlegrounds

The Liberal Democrats need to demonstrate they are still a political force in St Neots. There has been hardly any activity by them so far. Potentially they have St Neots Eynesbury and St Neots Eaton Socon to try and win. Eynesbury has the only Liberal Democrat Councillor for a St Neots ward. They also need to fight back in Eaton Socon

The Conservatives need to thump home their wins of 2011 in Eynesbury and Eaton Socon by scoring good wins against the background of the NO2AV campaign not being behind them.

On the wider District, the Liberal Democrats need to defend the seats they already have and push ahead. Huntingdon East is a Liberal Democrat/Conservative battle. Huntingdon North is also a three way battle between Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Labour. This is the only seat Labour could take.

Ramsey could see the last of 3 Conservative seats fall to UKIP which is making this their centre of power.

Whether the Independent Councillor in Sawtry will continue is open to question. If he doesn't re-stand this should be another Conservative win.

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