Wednesday, April 4, 2012

The District Elections 2012

The list of candidates has been published for those standing for the 15 seats up for grabs at the elections on 3rd May 2012. This is how I predict the elections could fall.
The Conservatives have put up candidates in 14 of the 15 seats. Sawtry has been missed out. Could no candidate could be found? Laine Kadic is standing in Godmanchester. Peter Brown is standing in Huntingdon East. Seems the Conservatives have no other candidates left. Bob Farrer is standing for the Conservatives even after he was considering going independent.

The Conservatives are defending in:

St Ives East - Conservative - Jason Ablewhite (Council Leader)
Godmanchester  - Conservative - Interesting with UKIP and an Independent standing
Huntingdon North  - Conservative
Ramsey -  Conservative - Likely to lose to UKIP
Somersham - Conservative
St Ives West - Conservative
St Neots Eaton Ford - Conservative
St Neots Eaton Socon - Conservative
St Neots Eynesbury - Conservative
The Hemingfords - Conservative
Yaxley - Conservative

Whilst UKIP standing could prove interesting in Eynesbury, Eaton Socon, Godmanchester and Huntingdon North, this would depend on how hard UKIP is going to campaign in these areas. Little campaigning would do little to change these results.

The Conservatives will be targeting these wards.
Brampton - Liberal Democrat
Huntingdon East - Liberal Democrats
Warboys and Bury - Liberal Democrats

The Liberal Democrats are standing in 13 seats out of 15. Ramsey and Sawtry have no Liberal Democrats standing.

The seats the Liberal Democrats are defending.
Brampton - Liberal Democrat
Huntingdon East - Liberal Democrats
Warboys and Bury - Liberal Democrats

The Liberal Democrats are defending 3 seats. Brampton is almost a cert to be retained by the Liberal Democrats. Mike Shellens could hold Huntingdon East as UKIP could garner enough Conservative votes to save him. Warboys and Bury seems to be lost. This seat is ripe for a UKIP win if they can campaign.

The Liberal Democrats should be targeting the following seats: Godmanchester, Huntingdon North, St Neots Eynesbury and St Neots Eaton Socon. The likelihood is the Liberal Democrats will just defend where they can. With the elderly Doug Terry standing in Eynesbury it seems the Liberal Democrats have given up there. With Gordon Thorpe standing in Eaton Socon they have given up there too.

The Labour Party has no District Councillors. To move forward they need to gain seats. The only prospect is in a 4 way fight in Huntingdon North. The other point Labour has to make is to keep their vote that they got in 2011 in real numbers and not just in percentage terms.
One candidate in every ward. Looks as though they should win Ramsey and will have a go at Warboys and Bury. They do need another seat to become a minor party. UKIP could be the real winners, but they need to campaign in every ward to maximise their vote. If they did UKIP could become the second party by number of votes in Huntingdonshire.

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