Monday, December 27, 2010

Predictions for 2011 Town Council elections

What happens at the Town Council elections depend on many different factors as to who is standing and where. There have been many who said they would stand for District or Town Council as Independents. This is normally hot air and nothing comes of these flights of fancy.

Eynesbury - 7 seats - 1 extra for 2011. 
At the 2007 elections the result was 5 Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives 1. There was a 30 vote difference between the Conservative and the last Liberal Democrat. With the annexation of part of Eynesbury Hardwicke the best comparison would be the 2010 election.
If UKIP stands at Town Council elections they will cause harm to the Conservative vote. On the otherhand if Labour puts one or more candidates up this will hurt the Liberal Democrats.

Priory Park - 4 seats

The Liberal Democrats undoubtedly one this because Labour stood at the Districts and not at the Town Council elections. If Labour were to stand this could swing this the Conservative way as it did in 2010.
Depending on Labour not standing seems the only hope for the Liberal Democrats. If Labour stands this would cut the Liberal Democrats vote.

Eaton Socon - 4 seats
The Labour vote swung to the Liberal Democrats in 2007. The Conservatives should win if Labour doesn't stand at these elections in 2011.

Eaton Ford - 5 seats. 1 extra for 2011

This could prove interesting if the UKIP stands here. Marian Appleton, who stood in Eynesbury at the District elections, lives in Eaton Ford. If UKIP stood in this ward they may be able to garner enough Conservative vote to let the Liberal Democrats in. On the other hand a full set of Labour candidates could keep them from winning.

East - 1 new seat for the new ward taking in Love's Farm.
No idea how this seat will go. If anything this seat is up for grabs and is small enough for an independent or Labour to campaign and win. Otherwise I've marked this down as a Conservative win. As a single seat it could hold the balance of power.

My prediction.
There are loads of different factors going on here. Labour, UKIP and any Independents could upset this election.

Each scenario means lots of work for each party. If I was running the campaign for:
 the Conservatives, I would be concentrating on the whole Town to get out the vote across St Neots.
 the Liberal Democrats, I would be talking to Labour to stop them standing candidates. I would then be concentrating on the whole Town
 Labour I would put at least one candidate up in each seat. More if I could. I would then concentrate my campaign on Love's Farm.
 UKIP, I would get at least one candidate into each ward. I would then aim my campaign on Eaton Ford.

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