Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Could AV referendum favour the Liberal Democrats?

With the AV referendum, District Elections and Town Elections all happening on the same day this could be the game changer for the political parties in St Neots. Depending on the enthusiasm for the AV vote this may bring out voters who would normally turnout for local elections. This is therefore an unknown quantity. There isn't much to go on with referendum turnouts. The last UK one was in 1975 and Cambridgeshire had a 62.9% turnout. Scotland had a 60% turnout for their referendums in 1979 and 1997. In Wales it was 50% in 1997.

With AV not on the top of most political agendas, the turnout may be as low as 35%. Roughly what I would expect at a council election. The likelihood that this will attract those who support the Liberal Democrats and the minor parties could bring more voters out. This will mean higher election turnout but not as high as the general election. This could favour the Liberal Democrats at Town level if Labour don't stand.

On the otherhand UKIP will be supporting the Yes to AV campaign. Unless UKIP stands again at the District Elections and their vote will go largely locally to the Conservatives and, to a lesser extent, the Liberal Democrats.

What of Labour? If they put up even a minimal fight they could attract some of the vote going to the Liberal Democrats. This could cause the District Council seats to go Conservative and the Liberal Democrats, unless Labour stands for Town Council, win the Town Council.

The results of the Town Council elections are still up in the air. Labour not standing at these elections will favour the Liberal Democrats. Labour standing will favour the Conservatives. If Labour doesn't stand I say the Liberal Democrats should win. Martin Land is probably running the Liberal Democrat campaign and many other campaigns in Cambridgeshire so a Liberal Democrat win is not certain.

As a predominately Conservative voter I have mixed feelings about both political groups in St Neots and in HDC. Nearer the time I will set out which party and candidates I favour and why. It will probably be a mixture between Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. Both sides have their faults. With the Conservative run HDC being a financial disaster and, a few years back, the Liberal Democrat run St Neots Town Council was in the same position I find it hard to distinguish between the two.

With all up for grabs I would have thought the streets would be littered with political party literature. They are not. Unless I'm missing out because I've been blacklisted by both political parties in St Neots. According to one Liberal Democrat I'm the "most hated man in St Neots".

1 comment:

Ste said...

"Most hated man ???" This is probably the best political blog I have ever read! Maybe some people don't like some of the facts that appear on here?

It's the Private Eye of Huntingdonshire politics, in my book.