Blogging through the night/My predictions

I will be blogging through the night of 6th May/7th May especially when some of the more local results start comings in. I will be refining my predictions as we go through the night on the potential Huntingdon result.

I suggest the Huntingdon Constituency result could be the following:

Party	Candidate	Prediction 2010 Vote	2005 Vote	+/-	Prediction 2010 %	2005 %	+/-
Conservative	Jonathan Djanogly	22000	26646	-4646	40	50.8	-10.8
Liberal Democrat	Martin Land	16500	13799	+2701	30	26.3	+3.7
Labour	Anthea Cox	2200	9821	-7621	4	18.7	-14.7
UKIP	Ian Curtis	2750	2152	+598	5	4.1	+0.9
Green	John Clare	1650	0	+1650	3	0	+3.0
APP	Carrie Holliman		0		-	0
Independent	Jonathan Salt	8250	0	+8250	15	0	+15.0
OMRLP	Lord Toby Jug		0		-	0
Turnout		55000	52418			62.5
Majority		5500	12847		10	24.5

There are a few comparators like North East Cambridgeshire, North West Cambridgeshire, South Cambridgeshire. I will use these seat to refine my prediction as the night goes on. I will look for other seats to compare my prediction with.

I do feel the Labour vote will be dramatically cut and this vote will flow to Martin Land, Jonathan Salt and to John Clare. I do feel the Conservative vote will be cut and this will flow Ian Curtis, Jonathan Salt and some to Martin Land.

The big unknown is Jonathan Salt and his Independent campaign. I don't know how to gauge his support. On some scores I've got him losing his deposit. On other I have him winning.

I do feel there is an ambivalence towards Jonathan Djanogly. It is not within the realms of possibility that Jonathan Djanogly could lose or just win. On the other hand he could win by miles. It is the Conservatives to lose this seat. On past local by-election results they have achieved this rather spectacularly. Ramsey (not in this Constituency), Huntingdon North, Fenstanton and even Eynesbury have all gone the wrong way.

WARNING: All of this may be wishful thinking on my part.