Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Blogging through the night/My predictions

I will be blogging through the night of 6th May/7th May especially when some of the more local results start comings in. I will be refining my predictions as we go through the night on the potential Huntingdon result.

I suggest the Huntingdon Constituency result could be the following:




Party Candidate Prediction
2010 Vote
2005 Vote +/- Prediction
2010 %
2005 % +/-
Conservative Jonathan Djanogly 22000 26646 -4646 40 50.8 -10.8
Liberal Democrat   Martin Land 16500 13799 +2701 30 26.3 +3.7
Labour Anthea Cox 2200 9821 -7621 4 18.7 -14.7
UKIP Ian Curtis 2750 2152 +598 5 4.1 +0.9
Green John Clare 1650 0 +1650 3 0 +3.0
APP Carrie Holliman 0 - 0
Independent Jonathan Salt 8250 0 +8250 15 0 +15.0
OMRLP Lord Toby Jug 0 - 0
Turnout 55000 52418 62.5
Majority 5500 12847 10 24.5


There are a few comparators like North East Cambridgeshire, North West Cambridgeshire, South Cambridgeshire. I will use these seat to refine my prediction as the night goes on. I will look for other seats to compare my prediction with.

I do feel the Labour vote will be dramatically cut and this vote will flow to Martin Land, Jonathan Salt and to John Clare. I do feel the Conservative vote will be cut and this will flow Ian Curtis, Jonathan Salt and some to Martin Land.

The big unknown is Jonathan Salt and his Independent campaign. I don't know how to gauge his support. On some scores I've got him losing his deposit. On other I have him winning.

I do feel there is an ambivalence towards Jonathan Djanogly. It is not within the realms of possibility that Jonathan Djanogly could lose or just win. On the other hand he could win by miles. It is the Conservatives to lose this seat. On past local by-election results they have achieved this rather spectacularly. Ramsey (not in this Constituency), Huntingdon North, Fenstanton and even Eynesbury have all gone the wrong way.

WARNING: All of this may be wishful thinking on my part.

3 comments:

Save Hinchingbrooke Hospital said...

Jonathan Salt will be the key to the result here....such a well known community man, but an unknown quantity in this area....lets hope he swings it

Ste said...

Dave, if Jonathan did, say, 2500, and Martin Land got the others, bye bye JD!!

Amused said...

Jonathan Salt is not a well known enough 'community man' to swing it though. He may gain the protest votes against the main parties but it most certainly will not be enough of a vote based on his campaign to make a difference. Not a serious contender!