Could the Conservatives lose control of HDC in 2010?

It is mathematically possible for the Conservative to lose control of Huntingdonshire District Council. But it is unlikely they would do so.

The Conservatives are currently in control. The Conservatives have 36 seats. Liberal Democrats: 11 seats. Independents: 2 seats. Non-aligned: 2 seats. Vacancy: 1 seat. So the Conservatives have a majority of 22 over all other parties.

At the 2010 local election the following Huntingdonshire wards are due up for election.

Wards - Incumbent party.
Alconbury and The Stukeleys - Conservative
Buckden - Liberal Democrat
Earith - Conservative
Elton and Folksworth - Conservative
Fenstanton - Conservative
Godmanchester - Conservative
Gransden and The Offords - Conservative
Huntingdon East - Liberal Democrat
Huntingdon West - Conservative
Ramsey - UKIP
Sawtry - Independent
St Ives East - Conservative
St Ives South - Conservative
St Neots Eynesbury - Conservative
St Neots Priory Park - Liberal Democrat
The Hemingfords - Conservative
Warboys and Bury - Conservative
Yaxley and Farcet - Conservative

Conservatives are defending 13 seats
Liberal Democrats are defending 3 seats
UKIP are defending 1 seat
Independents are defending 1 seat

For the Council to go from Conservative to No Overall Control the opposition parties will need to hold all their seats and the Conservative to lose all 12 seats they are defending. If the Conservatives lost all 13 seats they would end up at 24 seats

On these figures the best the Liberal Democrats could be the largest group with 26 seats. This is achieved by retaining the 3 seats they are defending plus the 15 other seats they should be targeting. This means HDC would become a No Overall Control council. But as they didn't fight Sawtry in 2008 allowing the Independent candidate to win. If they repeat this action they could only get a maximum of 25 seats.

These local elections will not be like other District elections as it should be in tandem with the General Election. It is almost a given the Conservatives will retain control. They may even increase a number of seats. As a greater number of voters will vote than at normal local elections this could all be up in the air and some strange results could happen.

So the answer to my question is: Yes the Conservative could lose control. But no other party can gain control.