Monday, January 25, 2010

Boundary Changes aren't good for the Liberal Democrats?

"that the Tories remain a coalition between the blatantly self-interested, closet racists, and homophobes.."
In his first entry on his website the new Liberal Democrat parliamentary candidate, Martin Land, announces his selection like a new Pope. Whilst he may feel he'll get the catholic vote by this use of Latin, I'm unconvinced this will resonate with the electorate. Habemus PPC indeed!

But Latin isn't the point of this article. It is the idea that boundary changes are helpful for the Liberal Democrats. Martin Land says: "With revised boundaries, life is not going to be as simple for the local Conservatives as it has been in the past."

So Martin Land where is your evidence for this statement? I can't find any evidence to back up what you said.

In the respected website the opposite is actually found. The researchers have come up with a Notional result which means the Conservatives actually increased their lead.

2005 Actual Result
Conservative: 26646 (50.8%)
Labour: 9821 (18.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 13799 (26.3%)
UKIP: 2152 (4.1%)
Majority: 12847 (24.5%)

The Notional 2005 result - adjusted for boundary changes.
Conservative: 25170 (51.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 12611 (25.7%)
Labour: 9309 (19%)
Other: 2024 (4.1%)
Majority: 12559 (25.6%)

So the Boundary Changes help the Conservatives and hinder the Liberal Democrats. Martin Land didn't say that!

I also noticed this quote: "Over the last two elections we’ve moved from a poor third, doubled our share of the vote and are now in a strong second place."

Well no, this is wrong. In 2001 the Liberal Democrats came second with 23.9% of the vote. In 2005 they increased this vote by 2.4% to 26.3%. If measured over three elections from 1997 this statistic sort of works out. But the major jump in support was between 1997 and 2001.

It is true the Liberal Democrats are in a strong second place. So Martin Land needs to get support from Conservative supporters to win. He is hardly going to do all this by saying: "that the Tories remain a coalition between the blatantly self-interested, closet racists, and homophobes..".

But these elections are in the past. What of the 2009 Euro elections? Well the Liberal Democrats did really badly at these elections coming a bad third behind UKIP.

As the General Election gets nearer the statistics are going to come thick and fast. But they do need to be considered and looked at before they are believed.

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