Monday, September 20, 2010

Local Elections May 2011

At the local in May 2011 there will be the whole of St Neots up for election at District and Town levels. The only concern is over the AV Referendum and whether this will mean the Town/Parish elections will have to be moved to a different day.

Unless the voters utterly reject the Conservatives all over Huntingdonshire, the Conservatives are the certain winners at these elections. This Council is elected in thirds. So 19 out of 52 seats are up for election. The wards and who currently has the seat is listed below:

Brampton - Liberal Democrat marginal
Earith - Conservative safe
Ellington - Liberal Democrat marginal
Elton and Folkswork - Conservative safe
Fenstanton - Liberal Democrat marginal
Gransden and The Offords - Conservative safe
Huntingdon East - Conservative marginal
Huntingdon North - Liberal Democrat marginal
Huntingdon West - Conservative safe
Kimbolton and Staughton - Conservative safe
Ramsey - UKIP marginal
Somersham - Conservative safe
St Neots Eaton Ford - Conservative safe
St Neots Eaton Socon -Liberal Democrat marginal
St Neots Eynesbury - Conservative Marginal
St Neots Priory Park - Liberal Democrat marginal
Stilton - Conservative safe
Upwood and The Raveleys - Conservative safe
Yaxley and Farcet - Conservative safe

The current state of the parties are: Conservative 37 - Liberal Democrats 12 - UKIP  2 - Independent 1.  

If the Conservatives lost all 12 seats they would be the largest party with 25 seats. This won't happen. With 10 out of the 12 seats classified as safe and only 2 as marginal the outcome is certainly Conservative. As all the Liberal Democrats seats are classified as marginal they could lose all 6. UKIP should retain their seat in Ramsey though it would go Conservative if they don't.

The spread of seats for the parties are:

Conservatives spread 35 - 44 seats
Liberal Democrats spread 6 - 14 seats

St Neots and Huntingdon should be battlegrounds for the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.

This election is an all up election - where every seat is up for election - in mainly multi member wards. There are changes over the last all up election in 2007. With the annexation of Love's Farm and the Town Ward of Eynesbury Hardwicke there will be an increase in the number of Town Councillors from 18 to 21. There is an increase in the Eynesbury Ward of 1. There is also a new ward - East - with 1 member formed to cover Love's Farm. The other extra seat has been added to Eaton Ford.

The current status is 13 Liberal Democrats and 5 Conservatives.

Eynesbury - 6 (5 Liberal Democrats, 1 Conservative) + 1 new seat = 7 seats
Eaton Socon - 4 (4 Liberal Democrats) = 4 seats
Eaton Ford - 4 (4 Conservatives) + 1 new seat = 5 seats
Priory - 4 (4 Liberal Democrats) = 4 seats
East - 0 + 1 new seat = 1 seat

In the 2007 Town Council elections Labour didn't stand. This meant Labour votes went elsewhere and that elsewhere was mainly the Liberal Democrats. For the 2011 there are two scenarios. These are:

If no Labour candidates standing:
Eaton Ford - 5 Conservatives
Eaton Socon - 4 Liberal Democrats
Eynesbury - 7 Liberal Democrats
Priory Park - 4 Liberal Democrats
East - 1 Conservative

Predicted Result:
15 Liberal Democrats - 6 Conservatives

If Labour candidates do stand:
Eaton Ford - 5 Conservatives
Eaton Socon - 4 Conservatives
Eynesbury - 7 Liberal Democrats
Priory Park - 3 Liberal Democrats 1 Conservatives
East - 1 Conservative

Predicted Result:
11 Conservatives - 10 Liberal Democrats

Except for Eaton Ford Ward which is a safe Conservative ward, the rest of the seats are marginal one way or another. With just over 7 months to go until the elections I would of thought the political parties would be out with low level campaigning. So far no leaflets through the door. It isn't as though there isn't much to say!

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