Sunday, April 18, 2010

Republished - The Euro/County result analysis

I thought I would republish part of the analysis of the European Elections results in comparison with the County Council election results.

The 2009 Euro Elections were held in tandem with the County elections. This gave a chance to compare local election results where few parties stand to the Euros where many parties stand. This analysis can show where voters moved from the main parties to minor parties.
The County results were roughly the following:
Conservative: 23,950
Liberal Democrat: 14,150
UKIP: 3,900
Labour: 2,984
Green 1,440
Others: 566
At the Euro elections:
Conservatives: 16,543: (-7,407)
Liberal Democrat: 6,498 (-7,652)
Green: 3,332 (+1,892)
Labour: 2,421 (-563)
UKIP: 10,422 (+6,522)
Others: 7,812
The difference between the two elections are as follows:
Conservatives: -7407:
Liberal Democrat: -7,652
Green: +1,892
Labour: -563
UKIP:  +6,522
Others: +7,246
The others are:
BNP: +2,377
ED: +930
UKF: +1,354
Animals Count: +343
Christian Party: +656
Jury Team: +226
No to EU: +482
Libertas: +354
Socialist Labour: +280
Independent: + 332
OMRLP: -566

Conservatives: They lost a large minority of their support between the local elections and the Euros. I would suggest much of this support went to UKIP. But not all. Some went to the Jury Team, Libertas, UK First and the BNP.

Liberal Democrats: A total disaster as their local vote didn't translate into their Euro vote. 54% of their local support went elsewhere at the Euros. Some of the vote went Green but many others must have voted UKIP or even BNP.

Labour: This was a bad election for Labour who were beaten into 5th place in the Euros behind the Greens and not much in front of the BNP. The loss in Labour vote is not explained by a transfer of voters to the BNP. It can be explained by the transfer of votes to other left wing parties.

UKIP: They did very well at both local and Euro elections. With the Euro vote UKIP is the number 2 party behind the Conservatives.

At the Euro elections the Conservatives got 35% of the vote. The Liberal Democrats failed translate their local vote to their national vote. It was UKIP gaining support for both Conservatives and Liberal Democrats which saw its vote rise to become the second party in terms of votes.

In conclusion: At the General Election the electors vote to return a candidate to Parliament. It is obvious that if you vote for Djanogly you vote for this expenses scandal tarnished candidate.

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